The Great Teofilo Debate

Smoke Without Fire?
If you've been anywhere near a racing page or website in the last day or so, you'll know that there were alarming fibrillations in the betting markets yesterday as rumours and counter-rumours emerged regarding the health of Teofilo, the very short priced favourite for the 2000 Guineas, on 5th May.

His price appeared to be on the end of quite a long piece of string for a few hours yesterday, as he became one of the biggest drifters since Victor Bynoe (I hope someone somewhere gets this gag!).

Available at around 11/8 on betfair before lunch yesterday, and around evens to 5/4 with most high street books, by 2pm Teofilo had been matched at 11/1 on betfair and a number of the major layers had suspended betting.

By last night Teofilo was back to 7/2 on betfair, and he is trading - at the time of writing - at back out to 9/2, having been 9/4 this morning.

My advice is this: unless you know something from the stable, DODGE THIS HORSE WITH YOUR LIFE!

Jim Bolger was quoted this morning as saying, "Teofilo has had a training setback. When trotted yesterday afternoon he showed slight discomfort.

"As a result, his training will be restricted to walking and swimming for one week.

"Otherwise, he is fit and well and on target for his 2,000 Guineas tilt on May 5.

"A further statement on his condition will be issued early next week."

Now I don't know about you, but that isn't the sort of thing that makes me want to rush to the bookmaker with a satchel full of cash.... unless I just need the satchel for some other purpose!

Aside from anything else, why is the horse trading at 5/4 even before these rumours?! I remember, and you probably do as well, Celtic Swing, a recent nailed on hotpot who couldn't lose. That is, until Pennekamp, turned about from across La Manche, and rolled him over.

I have to report, dear reader, that my record in the Guineas races is nothing short of embarrassing. In my defence, I cite a growing predilection for the better fancied horses to go straight to the race. For the majority of us, this means we have little or no clue as to how the horses have wintered; whether they've trained on; how they are in their coat; etc etc.

In other words, the Guineas races have become something akin to a crapshoot. Pick one of the top six in the betting and hope for the best. My advice is to pick one at 5/1 or bigger, because at least that way you are getting probability odds in your favour!

So, if you want a tip for the 2,000 Guineas, try this: lay Teofilo at whatever price you can. Even IF he turns up on the day - which personally I doubt (I reckon they'll save him the for the Irish equivalent) - his chances are severely compromised by this training setback.

It is hard enough to win a Group 1, let alone a Classic, with an uninterrupted preparation. Factor in a hiccup little more than two weeks prior, with an easy week for the horse stated by the trainer, and it will take more than 9/2 to get me parting with my cash!

Incidentally, that is even before you make the leap of faith that says Teofilo has carried his two year old progress into his third year.

Finally, and on a slightly different theme, just time for the traditional quick plug for TrainerFlatStats. A nice winner today (albeit only even money - backed in from 2/1 on betfair), and a few more runners coming up over the next few days. You can get your discounted copy by checking the details in the previous post at

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

(and, indeed, you can read all the historical posts here too - just click the month you require from the 'Archive' tab on the right hand side of the page).

Major horses in poor health scandals, Guineas trials, and a few more TrainerFlatStats runners... the Flat season is truly upon us! Bring it on...!

Matt

Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.